- 9 June 2020, 1:56 am
I still think we just lynch Eddie today and we win. I laid out my logic yesterday and I stand by it.
MiX has two partners. Let's just go through all the possible pairs
faust & WCD
faust & Eddie
faust & Swowl
WCD & Eddie
WCD & Swowl
Eddie & Swowl
faust/WCD: In this universe, two members of the scum team voted for their partner, stayed on him all day, and let him die in a deadline lynch when they had 100% control over the situation and could have gotten nearly anyone else lynched at any time without even looking particularly suspicious.
faust/Eddie, WCD/Eddie: In this universe, a member of the scum team voted for their partner, stayed on him all day, etc, etc. Two other members of the team formed an alternate wagon on town. They got a townie (LaLight) to join them. The faust/Didds half of the pair could have moved at any time to make the Swowl lynch happen, but I can maybe buy that they didn't do that because they figured there was a good chance I would show up and vote Swowl and that if I didn't the bus would make them look good.
faust/Swowl: In this universe, a member of the scum team voted for their partner, stayed on him all day, etc, etc. Another member of the team (MiX) formed an alternate wagon ALSO ON SCUM. Impressive commitment to the bus. The third member of the team planted his vote on the only partner not yet being voted on and then disappeared. Not only does scum bus in this scenario, scum does nothing but bus.
WCD/Swowl: In this universe, a member of the scum team voted for their partner, stayed on him all day, etc, etc. Another member of the team (MiX) formed an alternate wagon ALSO ON SCUM. The third member of the team placed his vote on town and then disappeared for the day. This one is more likely, but still pretty unlikely.
Eddie/Swowl: In this universe, two townies and an IC found scum and stayed there most of the day. Two members of the scum team tried to start an alternate wagon, but for some reason on another member of the scum team rather than on a townie. The other member of the scum team placed his vote on town and disappeared.
Thanks for being patient! This is a good post and I appreciate the time it took to create it.
So, let's take a look:
1. WCD/faust- No reason we'd have killed MiX by working together.
2. faust/Eddie, WCD/Eddie- I think faust is capable of using being on the MiX wagon to his advantage. I don't think the fact that faust is more likely to do than this clears me, but its far more likely that he would do that than I would. In my reread I see that you said this before
#D2.49 - 8 June 2020, 12:44 pm
1. It’s faust or WCD: seems really unlikely, but I know for a fact that when faust busses he commits and if it grants them IC status for the rest of the game, it’s worth it. WCD though… she had chances and chances to move and didn’t blink. I don’t buy it.
3. faust/Swowl- I agree that scum only bussing makes no sense. Daychat makes for easy coordination, but its still rather odd
4. WCD/Swowl- MiX was my only vote on D1. If I am scum, I am hardcore committing to a bus like never before. And then we'd have had to have talked about it in the daychat and decided that I would stay the course even though Swowl wasn't around. I can't see MiX and I hatching a plan that revolves around him getting wacked, and then deciding I could manage a win for us even if Swowl never showed. I think if that had been the case and someone was going to have to take the bullet, its me. MiX would be in a far better position to pull off a win with an absentee partner. I'd freak out. In the past, whenever we have been on a team, there has been more banter. I love banter! And I definitely would have known where he was or when he would be back because that is the kind of thing I ask and care about.
5. Eddie/Swowl- D1 definitely calls this into question. It would have been so much easier to gang up on me or LL.
So, all in all the Swowl wagon on D1 makes it really unlikely that Swowl is scum since it would be all kinds of weird to have the two competing wagons on scum.
I had been thinking about the fact that faust and I essentially got MiX lynched as a reason why we are not scum, but looking back faust was moving around a whole bunch on D1
Here are the votes:
WCD votes for MiX
faust votes for WCD
LL votes for WCD
faust votes for MiX
MiX votes for LL
MiX votes for swowl
Swowl votes for faust
uncle votes for LL
faust votes for uncle
faust votes for MiX
LL votes for faust
uncle votes for swowl
MiX votes for LL
MiX votes for swowl
ADK votes for MiX
LL votes for swowl
faust votes 4 times
MiX votes 4 times
LL votes 3 times
uncle votes 2 times
Swowl votes 1 time
WCD votes 1 time
ADK votes 1 time
faust was on MiX before ADK voted. The ADK vote would have made it harder to shift, if he had wanted to shift. I had forgotten that there was a chance you could have showed up before the deadline, so Swowl could have been the lynch.
When I ISO faust on D2, and imagine that Eddie is his partner, the banter between him and Eddie is more interesting, and could be an attempt to create some distance between them. faust and Eddie vote for LL, bang bang, out of the gate. Eddie moves his vote to Swowl 12ish hours before deadline so it ends up that even though they both sat on LL most of the day, that wasn't the case the morning of the deadline so he ended up off wagon.
There are two scum. Eddie and faust are the only folx voting and they are voting for each other. If they are both scum, its a bold move because its risky. But it is the kind of bold move that makes me and/or swowl look guilty, so genius. Next level mind fuck, that!
I can't preview this….I bet its so long, apologies.
TL; DR: faust/eddie seems most likley